Comments on: Forensic Science Statistics http://myblogs.informa.com/forensics/2011/08/04/forensic-science-statistics/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=forensic-science-statistics In association with the new journal: Forensic Science Policy & Management Sat, 20 Oct 2012 20:45:17 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: Max Houck http://myblogs.informa.com/forensics/2011/08/04/forensic-science-statistics/comment-page-1/#comment-17832 Max Houck Fri, 12 Aug 2011 14:29:03 +0000 http://myblogs.informa.com/forensics/?p=274#comment-17832 I think what we need is a new statistical approach entirely: DNA got to where it is because of the simple structure of the molecule, the predictability of the population statistics, and the selection of the loci for forensic purposes. If you think about it, until you multiply the allele frequencies together, DNA is still class level evidence--its power comes from the selection of the independent alleles. When we get to other materials, either biological or manufactured, things become far more complicated, not the least of which is that components of manufactured are intentionally selected for their properties. New statisical models need to be explored that (1) reflect the nature, structure, and history of the evidence and (2) is relatively easy to explain to a jury. Things like epidemiology, meta-analysis, data-mining, economic theory (are transfers of evidence like economic exchanges?) should be considered. I've said this all before but no one seems to pay attention. Are you listening, academic programs? Great masters' thesis ideas... I think what we need is a new statistical approach entirely: DNA got to where it is because of the simple structure of the molecule, the predictability of the population statistics, and the selection of the loci for forensic purposes. If you think about it, until you multiply the allele frequencies together, DNA is still class level evidence–its power comes from the selection of the independent alleles.

When we get to other materials, either biological or manufactured, things become far more complicated, not the least of which is that components of manufactured are intentionally selected for their properties. New statisical models need to be explored that (1) reflect the nature, structure, and history of the evidence and (2) is relatively easy to explain to a jury. Things like epidemiology, meta-analysis, data-mining, economic theory (are transfers of evidence like economic exchanges?) should be considered. I’ve said this all before but no one seems to pay attention.

Are you listening, academic programs? Great masters’ thesis ideas…

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